Everyone except Edwards, Hillary, and Obama are done. They were all DOA, and yet we’ll still have to waste time with them in the Nevada “debate.”
Hillary lost Iowa. Hillary is trying to spin it as “I was always behind in Iowa.” Yeah right. She was the front runner, until Obama beat her. Obama won, and Hillary lost. The takeaway coverage is, “She lost. She lost big. She had the money, and the organization, and the voters rejected her. They want change, and she’s not it.” There’s no silver lining in the Clinton coverage.
Hillary is not done though. You can’t count her out. She still has the money and she still has the organization.
Clinton tried to go negative against Obama earlier in the campaign, possibly about the Rezko land buy, and it didn’t go anywhere. Obama held a press conference, said he wouldn’t be swift boated, and the press walked way saying “Wow. Nice guy professor Obama can take a punch and throw a punch,” and it ended. If Clinton goes negative now, the coverage won’t be “Ooo! Didn’t know that about Obama!” it’s going be “Hillary is getting desperate and mean. She’s looking like a loser. Like a drowning person desperately thrashing about trying to grab at anything.” If Hillary goes negative, she’s sunk. Hillary’s only chance is to go positive.
However, Hillary has a big problem with going positive though. She doesn’t provide a reason to vote for her. Her arguments have been “I have experience the of being First Lady and a one term US senator, and a number of years of unspecified experience that magically inflates to whatever the situation requires” (35(!) years of experience I think she said today.), “I have a vagina,” and “I’m electable because the Republicans know all my flaws and so does the rest of America.” In the last days of the Iowa campaign she tried to embrace the “change” mantra and failed. Clinton doesn’t represent change, she’s the status quo. For Hillary Clinton saying she represents change is just as absurd as Romney saying today, “[P]eople want change in Washington, not in the White House, in Washington.”
Hillary’s main hope is for Obama to have some lackluster debates, then for her to throw in some zinger, but not too much of a zinger, and basically coast by on name recognition and some “Maybe Obama isn’t quite ready” talk. The key to a Clinton victory isn’t her attacks, or even her surrogates attacking, either one of which would be a death knell for her campaign. It’s going to be outshining Obama at a debate, which frankly can be done.
Edwards is playing the post Iowa coverage right. He’s making sure that everyone knows he was outspent, and finished second. What can Edwards do to win? I’m not sure. Perhaps he can capitalize on an Obama fumble and people realizing that Clinton is the status quo, and not the change they’re looking for. Bottom line, Edwards can’t win on his own, but he’s not dead yet.
Obama hast to just keep what he’s doing, avoid looking bored at the debates, and the nomination – and the presidency – are his.
